As 2025 comes to an end, the voluntary carbon market is showing clearer direction and sharper priorities than in previous years. After a period defined by rapid growth and experimentation, the market has increasingly shifted its focus toward credibility, durability, and verifiable outcomes. Buyers today are paying closer attention not just to carbon volumes, but to what those credits represent and how they perform over time.
This transition became visible in 2022, when average prices for voluntary carbon credits climbed significantly. The market saw prices rise from $4.04 per tonne of CO₂e in 2021 to $7.37 in 2022—an increase of more than 80% and the highest average level recorded in 15 years. While overall trading volumes declined from their 2021 peak, total market value remained close to $2 billion, suggesting that demand persisted even as purchasing behaviour became more selective.
In 2023, the market entered a more challenging phase. Reported transaction volumes fell sharply, declining by 56% compared to the previous year, while total market value dropped to $723 million. Average prices eased slightly to around $6.53 per tonne, though price movements varied significantly by project type. Forestry and land-use credits, including some REDD+ projects, were among the hardest hit, as many buyers paused activity while awaiting clearer integrity standards and updated methodologies.
Despite these headwinds, demand did not disappear. Credits associated with projects delivering strong environmental and social benefits continued to attract interest. Buyers increasingly favoured credits supported by robust verification processes, clear additionality, and co-benefits such as biodiversity protection, sustainable land management, and community development.
Market data from 2024 reinforces this pattern. While transaction volumes fell by a further 25% year on year, prices declined only modestly. More importantly, the number of credits retired—those actually used to offset emissions—remained stable at just over 180 million tonnes of CO₂e. This stability highlights that organisations continue to rely on voluntary carbon credits as part of their sustainability efforts, even as trading activity becomes more focused.
Another defining trend is the widening price gap between different credit types. Credits linked to carbon removals, whether through nature-based solutions or emerging technologies, now command substantial premiums over avoidance-based credits. This reflects growing buyer preference for permanence, long-term storage, and higher assurance.
In 2025, the voluntary carbon market continued to demonstrate resilience, underpinned by consistent demand and a clear shift toward higher-quality credits. Year-to-date retirements reached roughly 128.5 million units, remaining close to historic highs and highlighting the ongoing role of carbon credits across a wide range of sectors. While the pace of new issuances slowed over the year, pricing signals moved in the opposite direction. Spot prices for high-quality ARR credits climbed to around $24 per tonne by September, marking a sharp increase from early 2025 and pointing to rising buyer confidence in verified, long-term carbon removals.
Overall, the developments seen in 2025 suggest a market that is refining its structure rather than losing momentum. Higher standards are increasingly reflected in both demand patterns and pricing outcomes, registries are adjusting as methodologies evolve, and voluntary markets are drawing closer to compliance-aligned frameworks. With retirements remaining strong and confidence in high-integrity projects continuing to grow, the voluntary carbon market is closing the year on a more stable footing, positioned to expand in relevance as expectations around quality and transparency continue to strengthen.