The global carbon market is on the verge of a major growth trajectory, with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) and carbon offsetting forecast to reach a combined value of more than $1 trillion by 2050. That’s the projection from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie in a new long-term outlook.
As nations and businesses scale up climate efforts, both CCUS and voluntary offsets are becoming central to decarbonisation roadmaps. Wood Mackenzie’s data shows global carbon capture capacity could multiply 28 times over the next 25 years—reaching more than 2,000 million tonnes per annum by 2050.
‘This growth is expected to attract at least $1.2 trillion in investment to deal with these emissions’, said Hetal Gandhi, global forecasts lead at Wood Mackenzie. Gandhi added that ‘blue hydrogen leads growth until 2035, out-competing green alternatives on cost’, and noted that hard-to-abate industries—like cement, steel, refining, and coal-fired power in Asia-Pacific—will be key adopters of CCUS.
Meanwhile, the voluntary carbon market is also expected to expand dramatically. According to the report, offset volumes will grow sixfold and reach over $150 billion in value by 2050.
‘The carbon offset market will grow remarkably, with volumes expanding sixfold by 2050’, said Michelle Uriarte-Ruiz, senior research analyst. Notably, carbon removal projects are predicted to make up more than 40% of offsets by mid-century—highlighting a major shift toward permanent solutions in climate mitigation.
Wood Mackenzie also anticipates that rising demand for high-integrity credits and pressure to address Scope 3 emissions will drive more businesses to engage with offsets.
‘Long-term demand for carbon removal is essential for meeting net zero targets, but avoidance and reduction offsets will play a crucial role’, added Peter Albin, an analyst and co-author of the report. ‘These offsets will compensate for scope 3 emissions as companies grapple with supply chain decarbonisation complexities.’
Strong policy support will be critical for scaling early-stage CCUS projects and building robust offset frameworks. Offset credit prices, the report adds, are likely to rise more than fivefold by 2050—further encouraging investment in both removals and reductions.
Despite its current modest size—valued at around $535 million—the voluntary carbon market is expected to rebound sharply from its 2021 high of $2 billion. If Wood Mackenzie’s outlook proves accurate, this rebound may just be the start of a trillion-dollar evolution.