Amazon Reasserts ARR Commitment as COP30 Highlights Permanence Debate

As the discussions at COP30 wrapped up, Amazon used the global stage to reiterate its long-term commitment to afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) as a key pathway for carbon removals. The company’s stance highlights growing confidence among major buyers that high-quality nature-based projects will continue to play a central role in the voluntary carbon market—despite intensifying debates about permanence and risk.

Amazon reforestation initiative. AI generated picture.

Over the past year, Amazon has been expanding its relationships with ARR developers, mirroring a broader trend among large tech companies securing multi-year offtake agreements for credits that have yet to be issued. Although Amazon has not released details of its contracts, it has pointed to a developing “pipeline” of ARR deals, particularly in Brazil.

Still, the sector faces persistent questions around how reliably carbon can be stored over decades, especially as wildfire risk increases. Speaking on a panel in Belém, Jamey Mulligan, Amazon’s head of carbon neutralisation, emphasised both the economic logic behind ARR and the importance of evolving the market’s protection mechanisms. ‘Even if [an ARR project] burns and you need to plant it all over again, it is still cheaper than direct air capture’, he said. ‘And it's not about being cheap, but it's about economics and rational allocation of resources… And it's rational and correct to invest in [ARR].’

Mulligan noted that new structures may be needed to safeguard projects and buyers against nature-driven losses. He predicted that the traditional buffer pool model could soon give way to an insurance-like framework linked to credit accreditation timelines. ‘I think that the nature-based segments of the carbon market will shift maybe very soon from this kind of buffer pool construct… into more of an insurance-based approach during the accrediting period’, he said, suggesting it could be supported by ‘some kind of guarantee fund that likes of the World Bank would manage.’

A recent study from insurance provider Artio adds momentum to this direction, arguing that forestry projects must incorporate long-term forecasting that reflects more extreme natural conditions.

Regulatory uncertainty remains another challenge. Negotiators at COP30 were unable to reach agreement on permanence rules for nature-based credits under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. Mulligan warned that excluding ARR from the mechanism could narrow global climate options. ‘I hope [countries' negotiators] get it right… [Otherwise] we will be missing a part of the solution’, he said, adding that Amazon intends to maintain its ARR strategy regardless of the final outcome.

Earlier this year, Amazon expanded its sustainability offering by allowing partner companies to purchase carbon credits—including ARR—through its dedicated platform, signalling a continued long-term bet on nature-based removals.