Enhanced Firewood Model Promises Greater Accuracy for Carbon Markets

The Modeling Fuelwood Saving Scenarios (MoFuSS) tool, commissioned by the UN, has undergone significant updates to improve the accuracy of firewood usage data in Africa. This move addresses concerns about over-crediting in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), often attributed to inflated estimates of unsustainable wood harvesting.

An African woman making a meal on a clean cookstove. AI generated picture.

The updated MoFuSS model, developed by academics Adrian Gilhardi of the National Autonomous University of Mexico and Rob Bailis, incorporates advanced Monte Carlo statistical techniques. These simulations account for multiple variables, reducing uncertainties and refining predictions. The model’s localised approach is critical in African regions where firewood consumption is one of several factors driving deforestation.

A key improvement in the model is the recalibration of the fraction of non-renewable biomass (fNRB), a metric essential for carbon credit calculations. The latest figures estimate the global average fNRB at 32% ± 18%, a notable reduction from previously inflated values. By aligning estimates more closely with ground realities, the model aims to enhance the integrity of carbon crediting systems.

The clean cookstoves sector, a significant player in emissions reduction efforts, is now considering the Comprehensive Lowered Emissions Assessment and Reporting (Clear) methodology. This new standard, still under review, is expected to integrate the updated MoFuSS values to support more precise calculations.

Despite widespread praise for these refinements, some critics question the underlying assumptions of the model and propose alternative approaches for measuring fNRB. However, as the sector works toward a unified methodology, the MoFuSS tool offers a promising step forward in improving the credibility and effectiveness of firewood sustainability metrics in carbon markets.