New Forecast Predicts Fourfold Growth in UK Carbon Credit Prices

Premium UK carbon credits could soar to $672 (£500) per tonne within the next 25 years, according to a new forecast from nature restoration investor Oxygen Conservation.

Kielder Forest, the UK’s largest man-made forest. AI generated picture.

In its latest publication, Oxygen Conservation Carbon Curve 2025, the company highlights the growing investment appeal of high-quality, nature-based carbon credits. Drawing from insights by over 30 experts in finance, legal frameworks, and natural capital, the report proposes a 10-step strategy to transform the UK voluntary carbon market (VCM) into a globally leading asset class.

A key driver behind this outlook is the rising prominence of ‘premium carbon’ credits that offer more than carbon removal by delivering measurable biodiversity improvements and tangible community benefits. The report points out that prices have already reached $168 per tonne in 2025.

Recent deals reflect this upward trend. Arup and Nattergal purchased 10,000 credits at $134/tonne, while Burges Salmon acquired 8,000 credits at $168/tonne. These transactions, Oxygen Conservation says, underscore the credibility of its long-term price projection.

With clear regulations, established financial systems, and strong environmental expertise, the UK is well-placed to lead on the world stage. The report urges government action to reinforce this advantage and scale nature-based solutions.

‘Tackling climate change is the greatest challenge and greatest opportunity of our time’, said Chris Winter of Oxygen Conservation, adding, ‘the time to invest is now.’ CEO Rich Stockdale shared a similar view, noting that ‘markets tend to shift when confidence is backed by solid evidence—something he believes the Carbon Curve provides.’

Beyond its pricing forecast, the report maps a detailed trajectory to the $672/tonne target, outlines carbon credit quality tiers, and offers a policy roadmap to secure the UK’s position as a frontrunner in green finance.