Why Carbon Removal Is Becoming Central to Germany’s Green Strategy

Germany’s progress towards its legally binding net-zero emissions target for 2045 will be shaped not only by emissions reductions but increasingly by its ability to deploy carbon dioxide removal (CDR) at scale. New research from Carbon Gap, in collaboration with engineering consultancy Sweco, suggests that ambitious investment in carbon removal could allow Germany to neutralise residual emissions by mid-century and potentially move into net-negative territory sooner than expected.

The study evaluates multiple transition scenarios, including two high-ambition pathways. One pathway centres on aggressive improvements in energy efficiency, while the other reduces dependence on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Despite their different approaches, both scenarios depend on a diversified mix of carbon removal methods and indicate that Germany’s projected residual emissions in 2045 could be fully offset if deployment accelerates in the near term.

A central finding is the need for long-term planning that extends well beyond 2050. Early scale-up of carbon removal would give Germany greater flexibility in managing unavoidable emissions and addressing legacy emissions, rather than relying on removals as a backstop solution. In contrast, the study’s low-ambition pathway delivers only around 47 million tonnes of CO₂ removals by 2045—significantly below what would be required and far short of Germany’s estimated theoretical maximum capacity of roughly 258 million tonnes per year.

According to the analysis, insufficient investment in carbon removal would heighten the risk of missing climate targets, particularly as land-based carbon sinks have become more unpredictable. The report also notes that well-designed policy support and early infrastructure development could unlock economic opportunities and help establish Germany as a leading hub for carbon removal technologies.

Sylvain Delerce, Chief Scientist at Carbon Gap, said: ‘Germany has a real opportunity to secure its net-zero target with carbon removal, but only if ambition remains high. Low-ambition pathways are not enough at a time when climate uncertainty is increasing.’

Across all scenarios, access to geological CO₂ storage is identified as a major limiting factor. While Germany has considerable capture potential, this cannot be realised without rapid expansion of transport and storage infrastructure, including pipelines, shipping options and secure storage sites. Without coordinated industrial policy, the study warns, capture capacity could outpace the infrastructure needed to use it effectively.

The assessment also finds that a wide range of carbon removal approaches—from afforestation and biochar to enhanced weathering, BECCS and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS)—are technically viable in Germany. Building a balanced portfolio would help spread risk and adapt to evolving regulatory and market conditions.

Public engagement research included in the study points to broad societal support for carbon removal, alongside concerns around governance, sustainability and credibility. While nature-based solutions are currently better understood, informed dialogue appears to increase acceptance of technological methods. However, the absence of a mature carbon removal market and clear regulatory frameworks remains a key challenge, underscoring the need for policy clarity as momentum builds.