Switzerland May Need 80 Million Carbon Credits to Stay on Track With Green Goals

Switzerland could see its demand for international carbon credits soar after 2030 as it works to stay on course for its environmental objectives through 2040. According to the KliK Foundation—the body responsible for purchasing offsets on behalf of the Swiss government—the country may require at least 80 million Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) between 2031 and 2040.

A man carefully planting a sapling, set against Chile’s lush landscape and reforestation activity, showing sustainable forestry and community action. AI generated picture.

Marco Berg, Managing Director of the foundation, said the credits would likely need to be ‘roughly evenly spread over the years.’ KliK is already tasked with acquiring 20 million ITMOs to help Switzerland meet its 2030 goal of halving emissions compared to 1990 levels.

Switzerland is among the most proactive participants in the emerging Article 6 carbon market, established under the Paris Agreement at COP29 in Baku. Yet, despite this early leadership, the global ITMO market still struggles with limited demand signals and slow progress in project deliveries.

Berg emphasised that the long-term plan is still uncertain. ‘The governmental draft legislation for the period 2031–40 is expected to be sent to the parliament for debate in the fall of 2027’, he said. ‘A final decision on the legislation will happen at the end of 2029 at the earliest.’

Switzerland’s environmental framework commits the country to net-zero emissions by 2050, with interim milestones of a 65% reduction by 2035 and 75% by 2040. To achieve these targets, it has signed bilateral carbon agreements with 14 partner countries, including Chile and Ghana, sourcing credits from projects with vintages between 2021 and 2030.

So far, the KliK Foundation has contracted 24 projects expected to supply about 17 million ITMOs, though only a fraction has been received. ‘So far, only 13,376 ITMOs were delivered to us’, Berg said. The foundation estimates the total cost for the 20 million credits at around CHF 600 million ($753 million), or $37.65 per ITMO.

Swiss law allows only energy-related projects to count toward national environmental goals, excluding nature-based solutions such as reforestation. This restriction, combined with the 2030 vintage cut-off, has raised concerns among several partners. Chile, for example, has suggested extending eligibility to 2035 to increase the supply of viable credits.

For now, no post-2030 commitments are in place. ‘It is too early right now to tell under what circumstances the KliK Foundation would be able to extend its contracts to 2035’, Berg explained. He added that more bilateral partnerships could still be in the works.

Despite these international efforts, Switzerland’s greenhouse gas emissions stood at 42.14 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2023, just 19.8% below 1990 levels. Analysts have warned that the country’s current trajectory leaves a wide gap to bridge, calling its targets ‘insufficient.’

If this pace continues, even KliK’s forecast of 80 million ITMOs might fall short—signalling that Switzerland’s next green phase will demand both accelerated domestic reductions and a deeper reliance on credible international credits.