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IATA Nearly Doubles Forecast for Airline Carbon Credit Demand
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has raised its expectations for how many carbon credits airlines will need during the current 2024–2026 phase of CORSIA, the UN-backed aviation emissions scheme. The latest projection puts demand at up to 237 million eligible credits, nearly 50% higher than the estimate made just last year.
Looking over lush hilly terrain toward a plane in the sky. AI generated picture.
The revised forecast reflects both higher-than-expected passenger traffic and the fact that more countries will be joining the programme. By 2026, CORSIA participation is set to grow to 130 states, compared with 121 this year, according to IATA’s analysis.
‘Offsetting requirements, in the entire first phase is expected to lie between 146 and 246 million tonnes of CO2—most of which is expected to be satisfied as CORSIA EEUs’, the association said in material shared with member airlines.
The new outlook places total demand between 146 and 237 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, well above the previous 107–161 million range. To comply, carriers can use CORSIA-eligible emissions units (EEUs) or credits tied to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). With EEUs currently priced around $23 each—far below the cost of SAF—IATA expects them to cover most compliance obligations.
At the lower end of the forecast, EEU demand would rise from 40.4 million credits in 2024 to 56.1 million by 2026. Under the high-case scenario, demand could reach nearly 99 million units in 2026 alone.
Unlike ICAO, which releases verified emissions figures annually each October, IATA taps into member airline traffic and emissions data to provide earlier forecasts. This advanced insight, it argues, gives carriers more time to plan for offsetting strategies.
Airlines officially have until early 2028 to settle their CORSIA obligations, but IATA has cautioned that delaying purchases could expose them to higher costs. With only about 15.8 million CORSIA-eligible credits currently available, supply remains tight—a factor that could put further upward pressure on prices as deadlines approach.
