Nature-Based Carbon Deals Accelerate in November as Japan Signals Higher Credit Prices

Nature-based carbon removals saw a notable uptick in November, with reported transaction volumes and new capital flows pointing to sustained momentum in the sector. Market data indicates that roughly 670,000 tCO₂e of spot and offtake agreements were announced during the month, up from close to 500,000 tCO₂e in October and significantly above the levels seen in engineered removals.

Workers planting new trees across a Japanese reforestation site under a bright blue sky. AI generated picture.

Much of this activity centred on soil carbon, where one major deal involved 400,000 tCO₂e and another—facilitated through the Symbiosis Coalition—reached 200,000 tCO₂e. Additional purchases were made by large corporate buyers across technology, mining and professional services, accompanied by a number of further trades across soil and forestry methodologies.

Despite fundraising totals easing from October’s record high, capital formation remained strong. Approximately $617 million in new investment vehicles were launched in November, including a facility designated to support blue carbon developments in the Caribbean. Direct equity investment, however, was limited, with just $4 million raised across the market.

COP30 discussions in the Amazon also played a role in shaping activity for the month, reinforcing the prominence of nature-based solutions within global climate strategies. Several organisations entered or expanded within the sector, bringing forward new initiatives in blue carbon, forestry and early-stage project development across emerging economies. On the supply side, a single issuance of 1.6 million units from a Ugandan project under the Plan Vivo standard accounted for the bulk of newly released credits.

Japan’s voluntary carbon market developments added another distinctive signal. The Natural Capital Credit Consortium (NCCC) anticipates that credits generated through its soil and forest methodologies will command prices above $64/tCO₂e—more than twice the level typically associated with credits from the domestic J-Credit scheme. As NCCC chair Shunsuke Managi noted, ‘NCCC's method is more accurate in terms of measuring carbon and also adding the value for the ecosystem service maintenance’, with lidar-equipped drones and satellite analytics underpinning the system’s more detailed monitoring approach.

NCCC is progressing several domestic forestry projects, with the next issuances expected before the end of Japan’s 2026 financial year. Discussions with government officials regarding potential integration of its methodology into the national J-Credit programme are also underway.